Markets in 2025: How to position for whats coming - With Paul Jackson

Navigating the Big Picture: Why Asset Allocation Matters More Than Ever

Paul opens the discussion by emphasizing that asset allocation - not stock picking - is the true driver of long-term portfolio performance. It’s not about identifying the next hot stock, but about thoughtfully distributing risk and return across regions, sectors, and asset classes.

In an environment shaped by political instability, inflation uncertainty, and slowing economic growth, investors need a global, balanced, and adaptable approach. Paul’s advice? Start with your objectives and tolerance for risk, and build from there - don’t chase trends.

How Different Asset Classes Are Behaving Under Pressure

One of the central questions in the episode is how various asset classes are responding to today’s macro and geopolitical tensions:

• Equities: U.S. stocks remain expensive by historical standards, while non-U.S. markets, particularly in Europe and emerging economies, might offer better value.

• Fixed Income: In a world anticipating rate cuts, Paul explores the renewed appeal of bonds, but warns of default risks in certain corners of the credit market.

• Commodities & Alternatives: Industrial commodities and bank loans emerge as interesting tools for diversification - especially when inflation proves stubborn.

Gold: More Than Just a Safe Haven?

Gold has reached record levels - but should investors still buy in?

Paul argues that the price may already reflect most of the bad news that gold typically reacts to. With central banks being the main buyers, and speculative interest surging, he cautions investors not to overestimate gold's upside from here. Still, it remains a key hedge in portfolios - but only as part of a bigger picture.

U.S. Credit Risk & Global Debt: A Quiet Crisis Brewing?

The episode takes a sharp turn toward U.S. fiscal health and global credit markets. Paul breaks down:

• Why U.S. government debt is becoming more expensive to service

• Who’s still buying U.S. treasuries - and why that might not last forever

• The growing challenge of debt refinancing in an era of sticky inflation

His conclusion? While a crisis isn’t imminent, the system is under stress - and investors should prepare for rising volatility and slower growth.

Rate Cuts, Inflation & What Comes Next

Will the Fed actually cut rates this year? Paul outlines a realistic—but cautious—scenario. While markets have priced in multiple cuts, he suggests that central banks will move more carefully, balancing inflation risk with slowing demand.

For investors, this means rethinking traditional assumptions: cash might stay relevant, and volatility is likely to persist across markets.

Key Takeaways from the Episode:

• Asset allocation is your best defense—and offense—in uncertain times.

• Diversification across geographies and asset classes is critical right now.

• Gold’s momentum is real, but the upside may be limited from here.

• U.S. debt dynamics are shifting—be aware of the long-term risks.

• Don’t rely on aggressive rate cuts to save your portfolio.

🎧 Listen Now

This is a must-listen episode for anyone who wants to:

• Understand what’s really driving markets in 2025

• Learn how institutional investors approach risk and allocation

• Think beyond ETFs and basic diversification

🔗 Listen now on YouTube, Spotify, or wherever you get your podcasts.

Got thoughts or questions? Reach out to us at [email protected] or explore more on umushroom.com.