Shell PLC

Latest Results (18.03.2026):

Shell PLC — fourth quarter 2025 update: the company provided an outlook update for Q4 2025 ahead of final results due February 5, 2026. The note gives ranges for segment production, margins, operating costs, depreciation and taxation and flags material one‑off deferred tax impacts in joint ventures that are expected to depress Marketing and Chemicals results. Key operational notes include stable LNG liquefaction, higher upstream production guidance versus Q3, a weaker Chemicals & Products outlook (below break‑even), and cash‑timing items related to German emissions certificates and mineral‑oil taxes.

Integrated Gas

Q4 2025 outlook: production 930–970 kboe/d; LNG liquefaction volumes 7.5–7.9 MT. Underlying opex expected $1.2–1.4bn; pre‑tax depreciation $1.4–1.8bn; taxation charge $0.6–0.9bn. Trading & optimisation expected in line with Q3.

Upstream

Q4 2025 outlook: production 1,840–1,940 kboe/d (includes Adura JV incorporation). Underlying opex $2.1–2.7bn; pre‑tax depreciation $2.4–3.0bn; taxation charge $1.4–2.2bn.

Marketing

Q4 2025 outlook: sales volumes 2,650–2,750 kb/d (seasonally lower). Underlying opex $2.3–2.7bn; pre‑tax depreciation $0.5–0.7bn; taxation $0.2–0.5bn. Marketing adjusted earnings expected below Q4 2024, reflecting a non‑cash deferred tax adjustment in a joint venture.

Chemicals & Products

Q4 2025 outlook: indicative refining margin ~$14/bbl and indicative chemicals margin ~$140/tonne. Refinery utilisation 93–97%; chemicals utilisation 75–79%. Underlying opex $1.9–2.3bn; pre‑tax depreciation $0.7–0.9bn. The Chemicals sub‑segment is expected to post a significant adjusted loss and the overall segment adjusted earnings are expected to be below break‑even, driven in part by a non‑cash deferred tax adjustment in a JV.

Renewables & Energy Solutions and Corporate

Renewables adjusted earnings outlook: (0.2)–0.2bn. Corporate adjusted earnings outlook: (0.6)–(0.4)bn.

Shell Group cash flow, working capital and timing items

Group notes: tax paid in operating cash flow expected $2.3–3.1bn. Financial derivative movements outlook approximately -$2bn to +$2bn. Q4 working capital expected between -$3bn and $1bn and to include typical ~$1.2bn German mineral oil tax payment; cash flow excluding working capital includes an ~ $1.5bn outflow for timing of German emissions certificates (BEHG).

Deferred tax, JVs and portfolio changes

The Q4 outlook includes the annual non‑cash reassessment of deferred tax assets; deferred tax impact on Joint Ventures and Associates in Marketing and Chemicals is expected to be about $0.3bn (split roughly equally). The Adura JV incorporation changes future cash flow timing (dividends), and the Canadian oil sands swap reduces Q4 oil sands production to ~20 kboe/d with corresponding reductions in Chemicals & Products adjusted earnings and non‑controlling interest at group level.

Timing and cautions

This is an outlook update (forward‑looking non‑GAAP measures). Final Q4 2025 results are scheduled for publication on February 5, 2026; company‑compiled consensus is expected January 28, 2026. All outlook ranges exclude identified items and are subject to finalisation and the usual market and operational risks disclosed by Shell PLC.