Athabasca Oil Corp

Latest Results (15.04.2026):

Athabasca Oil Corporation — Q4 and year‑end 2025 results: the company reported strong operational and cash‑flow performance for the year ended December 31, 2025 (and Q4 2025), driven by liquids‑weighted production, disciplined capital spending and aggressive share buybacks. Key outcomes include higher production, robust adjusted funds flow, material free cash flow from Thermal Oil, large 2P reserves with significant NPV, and continued funding of growth projects (Leismer expansion and Corner) while maintaining a net cash position.

Headline results

Full‑year 2025: average production 39,375 boe/d (98% liquids), Adjusted Funds Flow of ~$504 million (~$1.01/sh), consolidated cash flow from operations ~$520 million and Thermal Oil Free Cash Flow of ~$217 million. Q4 2025 production was 41,061 boe/d.

Production

Annual production rose 7% (17% per share) year‑over‑year to 39,375 boe/d; Thermal Oil produced 35,905 bbl/d and Duvernay Energy contributed 3,470 boe/d (76% liquids). Exit momentum: Duvernay exit ~5,500 boe/d and Leismer additions ramping.

Cash flow and free cash flow

Adjusted Funds Flow (2025) ~$504M ($1.01/share); consolidated operating cash flow ~$520M. Athabasca (Thermal Oil) generated FCF of ~$217M in 2025; consolidated Free Cash Flow was ~ $181M (after Duvernay negative FCF).

Capital program

2025 capital expenditures totaled ~$323M (in guidance): ~$231M at Leismer and ~$75M at Duvernay. 2026 planned capex is ~ $310M with growth weighted to H2 as Leismer expansion ramps.

Shareholder returns

In 2025 Athabasca repurchased 39M shares for ~$230M and committed to returning 100% of Free Cash Flow to shareholders via buybacks; total repurchases since 2021 are ~ $720M (24% reduction in fully diluted share count since 2023). Management intends to renew the NCIB after March 17, 2026.

Reserves and NAV

Year‑end 2025 proved plus probable (2P) reserves of ~1.3 billion boe and ~1 billion barrels of contingent resource (best estimate). McDaniel NPV10 (before tax) for consolidated 2P = ~$5.8 billion (~$12.13/share using the company’s assumptions).

Balance sheet and liquidity

Athabasca reports a consolidated Net Cash position of ~$59M (including ~$316M cash) and available credit; face value of long‑term debt ~$201M. Management targets Net Debt/Adjusted Funds Flow <0.5x long‑term.

2026 guidance

2026 plan: capex ~ $310M, average consolidated production 37,000–39,000 boe/d (98% liquids) with ~2,500 boe/d impacted by planned turnarounds; exit rate ~43,000 boe/d. Adjusted Funds Flow guidance $425–$450M for 2026 (sensitivity: each US$1/bbl WTI move ≈ $10M AF). Company expects growing cash flow into 2027.

Operations — Leismer, Hangingstone, Corner

Leismer expansion on track (12 well pairs drilled, major equipment delivered, ~50% of expansion capital spent by YE‑2025); expected progressive growth to ~31–32k bbl/d exit in 2026 and up to ~40k bbl/d by late‑2027. Hangingstone averaged ~8.5k bbl/d in 2025 and remains resilient with minimal 2026 drilling. Corner is de‑risked with regulatory approval and modular 15k bbl/d phases; Phase 1 sanction targeted H2 2026, contingent on macro conditions.

Duvernay performance

DEC (Duvernay Energy) 2025: production 3,470 boe/d (76% liquids), Adjusted Funds Flow ~$39.4M, 2P reserves up 9% to 79 mmboe (NPV10 ~$592M). Recent wells delivered strong IP30/IP90 rates (~1,125 boe/d and ~945 boe/d), supporting self‑funded growth optionality and multi‑year inventory.