LAIQON AG

Latest Results (23.07.2026):

LAIQON AG — Q1/26: The company’s Q1/26 KPI disclosure and FY/25 results show improving operational momentum but continued need for a pronounced H2/26 ramp to meet full‑year targets. Q1/26 revenues rose to €10.56m (+63% YoY) with EBITDA improving to -€1.18m (Q1/25: -€2.77m). FY/25 reported results missed expectations on headline measures (revenues €34.9m; EBITDA -€2.9m; net loss -€20.4m), but pro‑forma/adjusted figures point to a stronger underlying earnings base (adjusted FY EBITDA ~€3.2m). Management reiterated 2026 guidance (revenues €53–58m; EBITDA €4.5–7.5m) while completing a multi‑element financing package that materially reduces near‑term liquidity risk, albeit at meaningful dilution.

Q1/26 key operating metrics

Q1/26 revenues: €10.56m (+63% YoY), annualised run‑rate ~€42m (below the €53–58m FY guidance). EBITDA improved to -€1.18m (vs -€2.77m in Q1/25). Asset Management was the main driver in Q1, with Asset Mgmt revenues €7.24m (+104% YoY), Wealth Mgmt €2.03m (+4% YoY), Digital Wealth €0.73m (+22% YoY), Group €0.56m.

FY/25 headline vs adjusted picture

Reported FY/25: revenues €34.9m, COGS €6.9m (gross margin 80%), EBITDA -€2.9m and net loss €-20.4m. One‑offs (~€2.5m) and non‑cash items (DTA reversals ~€5.5m; SPSW earn‑out revaluation €2.9m) materially inflated the headline loss. On a pro‑forma/adjusted basis management/analyst work shows FY EBITDA improving to ~€3.2m, indicating a better underlying trajectory.

AuM and product milestones

Group AuM end‑Mar 2026: €9.75bn (+49% YoY; down from €10.0bn YE‑25 due to market moves). Digital Wealth (LAIC) crossed €1bn AuM in mid‑April 2026 (€1.03bn), a strategic inflection point for platform monetisation. MainFirst consolidation added ~€2.1bn to AuM and boosted Asset Management revenues.

Guidance and execution risk

Management confirmed 2026 guidance (revenues €53–58m; EBITDA €4.5–7.5m) but reiterated that delivery is strongly H2‑weighted. Q1 run‑rates remain below guidance and achieving targets depends on a substantial H2 revenue/EBITDA step‑up, ETF and product launches, and LAIC scaling — visibility may remain limited until Q3/26 or FY/26 results.

Financing package & liquidity

Three‑pronged financing: (1) BarKE (cash capital increase) raised €6.6m (closed/registered); (2) new 2026/31 bond placement (5yr, 6.5% coupon) with a guaranteed floor of €9.2m — placement ongoing; (3) SachKE (debt‑for‑equity/in‑kind conversion) completed 28 May 2026 converting €13.4m debt into €10.7m equity (1.71m shares at €6.25) and €2.7m new bonds. Additionally, ~€8.5m of earn‑outs were deferred to May/June 2027. These measures close the previously identified ~€17m 2026 funding gap and provide a cash buffer.

Dilution and capital structure

Confirmed new share issuance totals 3.25m (BarKE 1.54m + SachKE 1.71m), raising the share count from ~21.14m to 24.39m — ~15.4% dilution. Net new financial debt from the package is limited (~€2m or less in the aggregate scenario described). Shares from the SachKE are subject to lock‑up to the 2027 AGM.

Profitability drivers & one‑offs to watch

Key drivers for margin improvement: further LAIC scaling (Union partnership), Amundi ETF launch (Q2/26), and the full‑year contribution from MainFirst. Risks: gross margin compression from MainFirst’s cost mix, successful execution of cost reductions, crystallisation of deferred earn‑outs in 2027, and remaining bond placement progress. FY/25 was impacted by one‑off M&A/restructuring charges (~€2.5m), SPSW earn‑out valuation (~€2.9m non‑cash) and DTA reversals (~€5.5m non‑cash).

Analyst view & valuation (from the report)

First Berlin maintains a Buy rating and lowered its price target to €8.70 (from €10.50) after updating forecasts and including dilution. The research note highlights improving underlying profitability and increased funding visibility but emphasizes that H2/26 execution is the critical determinant of 2026 outcomes.