The Mosaic Co

Latest Results (31.03.2026):

The Mosaic Co.'s fourth quarter and full year 2025 results show a full-year net income of $541 million (diluted EPS $1.70) and adjusted EBITDA of $2.4 billion, while the fourth quarter of 2025 produced a net loss of $519 million (diluted EPS $(1.64)) driven largely by $422 million in pre-tax notable items and a $261 million after‑tax deferred tax reserve in Mosaic Fertilizantes; fourth quarter adjusted EBITDA was $505 million (adjusted EPS $0.22).

Q4 headline and notable items

The Mosaic Co.'s Q4 2025 net loss of $519 million was impacted by $422 million of pre‑tax notable items (including a $189 million Carlsbad impairment, $110 million of goodwill/fixed asset impairments in Fertilizantes and other currency/mark‑to‑market and ARO items) which reduced EPS by $1.86 in the quarter.

Full‑year results

For full year 2025 Mosaic reported net income of $541 million, adjusted EBITDA of $2.421 billion (up 10% year‑over‑year), and adjusted diluted EPS of $2.27, with potash price/volume strength and Fertilizantes margin expansion offsetting weaker phosphate volumes and higher costs.

Potash segment

Potash 2025 net sales were $2.7 billion with adjusted EBITDA of $1.183 billion; production totaled 8.8 million tonnes (MOP average realized ~$255/tonne in 2025). Q4 volumes were 2.2 mt (impacted by temporary Esterhazy idling); Q1 2026 sales guidance is 2.0–2.2 mt with MOP FOB mine $255–$275 and full‑year 2026 production forecast ~9 mt.

Phosphate segment

Phosphate 2025 net sales were $4.6 billion and adjusted EBITDA was $917 million (down vs. 2024) as higher costs, idle/turnaround expenses and weak U.S. demand pressured Q4 (Q4 adjusted EBITDA $144 million). Q1 2026 phosphate sales are expected to recover to 1.7–1.9 mt with DAP FOB plant pricing $640–$670; elevated sulfur prices remain a near‑term margin headwind.

Mosaic Fertilizantes

Mosaic Fertilizantes reported 2025 operating earnings of $277 million (up 16%) and adjusted EBITDA of $567 million (up 65%); Q4 results were weaker (operating loss $26 million) due to a goodwill impairment, tightened credit in Brazil, higher sulfur costs and lower distribution margins, with Q1 adjusted EBITDA expected below $50 million.

Mosaic Biosciences

Mosaic Biosciences more than doubled 2025 net sales to $68 million after launching five new products, positively contributed to Q4 adjusted EBITDA, and targets roughly doubling net sales again in 2026 with 8–10 new product launches planned.

Cash flow, capex and balance sheet

Operating cash flow was $825 million in 2025 (down from $1.3 billion), free cash flow was negative $535 million, and capital expenditures totaled $1.36 billion; Mosaic expects 2026 capex of about $1.5 billion. Finished‑goods and rock inventory builds (finished inventory up ~$428 million) pressured year‑end cash flow.

Taxes, dividends and capital actions

The GAAP effective tax rate was 52.7% for 2025 (adjusted effective tax rate 30.8% excluding notable items); Mosaic paid a $0.22/share regular dividend in Q4 and returned $280 million in dividends for the year, and announced asset sales expected to yield ~ $230 million in total consideration.

Outlook and sensitivities

Mosaic expects 2026 to be more constructive heading into planting season, with phosphate production at or above 7.0 mt and potash ~9.0 mt. The company provided sensitivities: about $65 million of full‑year adjusted EBITDA per $10/tonne change in MOP and ~$80 million per $10/tonne change in DAP, and noted phosphate markets are tightening given Chinese export restrictions and elevated sulfur prices.