Greggs PLC

Latest Results (29.06.2026):

Greggs PLC — Full year 2025 results (52 weeks ended 27 December 2025, covering Q4 2025): Greggs delivered resilient performance with record total sales of £2,151m (+6.8% vs 2024) but saw underlying profit metrics fall as the business absorbed higher fixed costs and investment in supply‑chain capacity. Management maintained the ordinary dividend and flagged that 2026 profit expectations are broadly in line with 2025, subject to consumer conditions.

Sales and like‑for‑like performance

Total Group sales were £2,151m (+6.8%). Company‑managed shop like‑for‑like (LFL) sales rose 2.4% in 2025. Delivery grew 8.1% and represented 6.8% of company‑managed shop sales. Greggs increased market share (visits) to 8.6% for the year (Circana).

Profit and EPS

Underlying operating profit fell 4.0% to £187.5m (2024: £195.3m). Underlying profit before tax was down 9.4% to £171.9m. Underlying diluted EPS was 122.8p (‑10.7%); statutory diluted EPS was 119.3p (includes a £4.5m prior‑year VAT provision in 2025 and excludes a £14.1m 2024 exceptional gain in comparatives).

Cash, balance sheet and capital investment

Diluted operating cash inflow per share rose 4.6% to 267.1p. Year‑end net cash was £45.8m (cash £70.8m less £25m drawn on the RCF). Capital expenditure peaked at £287.5m in 2025 (supply‑chain sites and ERP), guided to ~£200m in 2026 and £150–170m pa from 2027.

Dividend and capital allocation

The Board recommends a final ordinary dividend of 50.0p, making total ordinary dividends 69.0p per share (maintained at 2024 level). The company intends to maintain the ordinary dividend through the investment phase and targets ordinary dividend cover of ~2x underlying EPS over time.

Returns, costs and efficiency

Underlying ROCE fell to 16.0% (2024: 20.3%) due to higher capital employed; management target remains around 20% and recovery is expected over the medium term as new capacity is leveraged. Structural cost savings of £13.0m were delivered in 2025; like‑for‑like input cost inflation was ~5.5% in 2025 and is expected to moderate to ~3% in 2026.

Estate growth and strategy

Net shop openings were 121 in 2025, taking the estate to 2,739 shops. Management targets ~120 net openings in 2026 and is trialling smaller “bitesize” and unattended formats. Focus remains on increasing access, expanding delivery, and growing evening sales (evening = 9.4% of company‑managed shop sales).

Operational indicators and near‑term trading

Greggs App usage climbed (scanned in 26.7% of company‑managed transactions). In the first nine weeks of 2026 LFL sales were +1.6% and total sales +6.3%. Guidance unchanged: expect underlying profits broadly similar to 2025, with improvement contingent on consumer recovery.